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The COVID-19 pandemic has already led to dramatic policy responses in most advanced economies, and in particular sustained lockdowns matched with sizable transfers to much of the workforce. This paper provides a preliminary quantitative analysis of how aggregate policy responses should differ in developing countries. To do so we build an incomplete-markets macroeconomic model with epidemiological dynamics that features several of the main economic and demographic distinctions between advanced and developing economies relevant for the pandemic. We focus in particular on differences in population structure, fiscal capacity, healthcare capacity, the prevalence of ``hand-to-mouth'' households, and the size of the informal sector. The model pred.
We revisit several leading puzzles about the aggregate stock market by incorporating into a standard dividend discount model survey expectations of earnings of S&P 500 firms. Using survey expectations, while keeping discount rates constant, explains a significant part of “excess” stock price volatility, price-earnings ratio variation, and return predictability. The evidence is consistent with a mechanism in which good news about fundamentals leads to excessively optimistic forecasts of earnings, especially at long horizons, which inflate stock prices and lead to subsequent low returns. Relaxing rational expectations of fundamentals in a standard asset pricing model accounts for stock market anomalies in a parsimonious way.
The constant-maturity zero-coupon Treasury yield curve is one of the most studied datasets. We construct a new dataset using a non-parametric kernel-smoothing method with a novel adaptive bandwidth specifically designed to fit the Treasury yield curve. Our curve is globally smooth while still capturing important local variation. Economically, we show that applying our data leads to different conclusions from using the leading alternative data of Gurkaynak et al. (2007) (GSW) when we repeat two popular studies of Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) and Giglio and Kelly (2018). Statistically, we show our dataset preserves information in the raw data and has much smaller pricing errors than GSW. Our new yield curve is maintained and updated online, c.
Consumers often face an overwhelming amount of information when deciding between products, and one of the primary policymaking tools available to improve their informativeness is the framing of this information. We introduce a general theoretical approach that characterizes when one frame is revealed to provide robustly higher welfare than another. Because it is testable, adaptable, and both necessary and sufficient, our condition determines both whether frames are robustly welfare ranked in a particular data set and the overall proportion of data sets in which frames can be so ranked.
Governments around the world use grant and loan programs to ease the financial constraints that contribute to socioeconomic gaps in college completion. A growing body of research assesses the impact of grants; less is known about how loan programs affect persistence and degree completion. We use detailed administrative data from Chile to provide rigorous regression-discontinuity-based evidence on the impacts of loan eligibility for university students who retake the national admission test after their first year of studies. Those who score above a certain threshold become eligible for loans covering around 85% of tuition costs for the duration of their program. We find that access to loans increases the fraction who return to university for.
The COVID-19 epidemic in emerging markets risks a combined health, economic, and debt crisis. We integrate a standard epidemiology model into a sovereign default model and study how default risk impacts the ability of these countries to respond to the epidemic. Lockdown policies are useful for alleviating the health crisis but they carry large economic costs and can generate costly and prolonged debt crises. The possibility of lockdown induced debt crises in turn results in less aggressive lockdowns and a more severe health crisis. We find that the social value of debt relief can be substantial because it can prevent the debt crisis and can save lives.
This paper develops a new method informed by data and models to recover information about investor beliefs. Our approach uses information embedded in forward-looking asset prices in conjunction with asset pricing models. We step back from presuming rational expectations and entertain potential belief distortions bounded by a statistical measure of discrepancy. Additionally, our method allows for the direct use of sparse survey evidence to make these bounds more informative. Within our framework, market-implied beliefs may differ from those implied by rational expectations due to behavioral/psychological biases of investors, ambiguity aversion, or omitted permanent components to valuation. Formally, we represent evidence about investor belie.
Support for massive investments in transportation infrastructure, possibly with a change in the share of spending on transit, seems widespread. Such proposals are often motivated by the belief that our infrastructure is crumbling, that infrastructure causes economic growth, that current funding regimes disadvantage rural drivers at the expense of urban public transit, or that capacity expansions will reduce congestion. In fact, most US transportation infrastructure is not deteriorating and the existing scientific literature and does not show that infrastructure creates growth or reduces congestion. However, current annual expenditure on public transit buses exceeds that on interstate construction and maintenance. The evidence suggests the i.
Nezavismaya Gazeta (Russia) 06/01/2020 01:50
Следственный комитет возбудил уголовное дело по факту безвестного исчезновения шестилетней девочки в Ленинском районе Крыма, сообщили в понедельник журналистам в пресс-службе Главного следственного управления СК РФ по Крыму и Севастополю. Шестилетняя Карина пропала во время прогулки 31.
Business Korea (Korea) 06/01/2020 01:48
[비지니스코리아=정민희 기자] 요즘 날씨가 풀리면서 쌀쌀했던 겨울 동안 누적된 만성피로와 컨디션 난조를 보이는 사람들이 많아졌다. 이러한 스트레스 및 피로를 풀기 위해 마사지샵을 찾는 사람들이 증가하고 있다.커플들 사이에서도 같이 마사지샵을 방문하여 단순히 피로만 풀 수 있는 게 아니라, 실내 데이트 특성상 마사지샵 내부 인테리어 와 분위기를 무시할 수 없게 되었다.천안시 신방동 먹자골목 메인에 자리한 천안 마사지샵 '해피타이'는 기존 마사지 샵과 달리 새로운 장을 열고 있는 곳으로 전문 마사지사의 손결로 누적된 피로.
ForexLive 06/01/2020 01:48
OPEC+ reportedly discussing to bring forward their next meeting to 4 June. See here for global coronavirus case data. Just something to take note of for oil traders, but as per OPEC+ tradition, so far their output cuts have proven to be more talk than action with the Reuters tanker shipments survey showing that OPEC members only.
Next Web 06/01/2020 01:46
Podcasting platform Stitcher said number podcasts have grown by 129,000% (that’s not a typo) in the last decade. In its annual podcasting report, the company said creators published 7 million episodes on the platform in 2019, as compared to 350,000 episodes published in 2010. Stitcher said that while people are publishing more podcasts, the average episode length is now 2.4 minutes shorter, as compared to an average episode in 2013. The report has some interesting tidbits about genres (true crime being the #1), formats, listening habits, and age group of listeners. I wish the study covered the topic of podfasters — people… at The Next Web Or just read more coverage about:

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