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The total cherry production forecast in Turkey in Marketing Year (MY) 2019/20 is 865,000 metric tons (MT), which is 41,000 MT more than MY 2018/19. The peach and nectarine production forecast for MY 2019/20 is 830,000 MT, 40,000 MT more than MY 2018/19. Stone fruit exports are increasing due to abundant production and strong demand from the Russian and EU markets. Turkey has begun exporting fresh sweet cherries to China for the first time. This report covers cherries, peaches, and nectarines.
In 2018, Indonesia’s imports of consumer-oriented agricultural products grew to $5.9 billion, an 8.5 percent increase from the previous year. Increasing urbanization and a growing middle-class suggest continued modern retail sector growth. Strong regional trade competition and a bureaucratic product registration process present challenges for market entry of U.S. products.
In 2018, Taiwan was the third largest export market for U.S. peaches and nectarines and the fourth largest export market for U.S. cherries. Taiwan’s peach and nectarine production is forecast to decline from 22,506 metric tons (MT) in 2018 to 17,000 MT in 2019 due to poor bearing. Total Peach and nectarine imports are forecast to be stable during the upcoming U.S. shipping season, in line with the historic trend at 15,000 MT. Total Cherry imports for the full year are forecast to decrease by eight percent to 11,000 tons due to less available U.S. supply attributed to weather related crop damage in the United States.
On June 28, 2019, the Government of India’s (GOI) Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) published amendments to the Advertising and Claims Regulations and made it operational. However, the compliance timeline is extended by six months from the date of notification, or until such time as the final notification of the Regulation incorporating the modifications are published in the Official Gazette of India, whichever is later.
Germany has long been a leader in the global pork sector and is currently the world’s second-largest pork exporter after the United States. In 2018, Germany became the largest pork exporter by value to China. Despite this export success, domestic demand for pork is waning and production has declined, with German swine herd numbers reaching near 20-year lows. This decrease in domestic pork production has led to a corresponding decline in demand for pig feed—a vital component of which is soybean meal. As the top exporter of commodity soybeans to Germany, the US will likely encounter a decrease in soy demand from the German pork sector in the near term.
The National Biofuels Policy of Brazil, the RenovaBio program, is expected to be implemented in late December 2019. Over forty biofuel plants have requested the certification process. Brazil’s total 2019 ethanol production is estimated at 34.45 billion liters, an increase of four percent compared to the revised figure for 2018. Total domestic demand for ethanol (fuel and other uses) for calendar year 2019 is estimated at 33.93 billion liters. Total Brazilian biodiesel production is estimated at 5.8 billion liters, an eight percent increase relative to 2018, based on the projected modest growth of the Brazilian economy and the increase of the biodiesel blend to eleven percent (B11) beginning in September 2019.
Chile’s cherry exports totaled 180,000 metric tons (MT) in marketing year (MY) 2018/19 and 87 percent of all exports went to the Chinese market. For the past five years, Chile’s cherry planted area has grown consistently at a 10 percent rate, adding up to 37,000 hectares (ha) in MY2019/20. Post projects cherry exports to increase 15 percent in MY2019/20, reaching 207,000 MT, as new orchards become productive.
Chicken meat production in 2020 will grow 2.5 percent to 13.975 million metric tons. Global demand, specially from China, drives growth due the impact of African Swine Fever in Asia. Chicken meat exports are projected to grow by 5 percent and set another record. Higher domestic demand next year is also expected because of an expected rebound of the Brazilian economy with a projected growth in GDP of 2 percent, with lower inflation and declining unemployment rates. In addition, stable feed costs are projected for 2020 increasing industry profitability and processing capacity.
Japan’s commercial cherry production in marketing year (MY) 2019/20 is estimated to fall six percent to 15,200 metric tons (MT) on colder temperatures during the flowering stage and reduced acreage. Meanwhile, strong U.S. production portends an increase in imports of fresh cherries, projected to soar 31 percent to 4,300 MT in MY 2019/20. As weather related damages over the past two years continue to impact Japan’s peach growing regions, FAS/Tokyo forecasts a production drop of nearly 12 percent to 100,000 MT in MY 2019/20. Currently, no country has market access for fresh peaches due to phytosanitary concerns. Imports of U.S. nectarines are expected to remain stable at around 300 MT.
In 2018, Bulgarian broiler meat production grew by 10 percent and duck meat production increased by 18 percent over 2017. Consumer demand for poultry meat reached record levels. 2018 imports declined slightly for the first time in many years, while exports grew by five percent on higher broiler meat shipments within the European Union (EU). CY2019 started with significantly higher broiler inventories. Chicken meat production during the first four months of 2019 was higher over the same period in 2018 and prospects for trade are favorable. Consumer demand is likely to remain strong, particularly due to a likely decrease in pork production following African swine fever outbreaks in the summer of 2019.
On January 1, 2019, Germany updated their waste management laws in an attempt to advance the country’s environmental protection goals and correct regulatory loopholes. Companies selling packaged goods must register with the German government before placing any packaged products on the German market. Although these responsibilities will typically fall to the German importer, U.S. companies should be aware and clearly allocate regulatory compliance duties in their sales agreements with German firms. Failure to register may result in a sales ban and fines of up to €200,000.
On July 26, 2019, the European Commission (EC) leadership approved/renewed nine genetically modified organism (GMO) biotech events for food/feed/fiber uses and one biotech ornamental cut flower. The timeframe for the EC’s GMO regulatory authorization process is lengthy with one of the events awaiting approval since 2011. The EC pattern is to approve groups of events during either the December holiday season or in the middle of the summer months.
On August 2, 2019, Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW) shared more details on proposed shifts to the positive list system for utensils, containers and packaging (UCP). This positive list system for UCP will only be applied to those made of or containing synthetic resins. As Japan will announce this revision to the World Trade Organization (WTO) soon, there is no embassy comment period.
The Bahamas is the second largest market for U.S. consumer-oriented products in the Caribbean. It sources over 70 percent of its consumer-ready products from the United States, creating an environment of opportunity for U.S. suppliers of retail products in practically all product categories. Bahamian demand for U.S. products and brands is driven by its proximity to the United States and familiarity with the American lifestyle and culture. Modest upticks in the economy and growth in private consumption should create new opportunities for U.S. suppliers in the retail sector.
Competition continues to drive retailers in Costa Rica to look for new ways to add value to their brands and attract more consumers in 2019. Pricing strategies, brand loyalty registrations, cash back cards and regular discounts for shoppers are some growth strategies implemented by local retailers. Online shopping is expected to become more popular especially among mid to high income consumers and millennials seeking discounts and best savings online.
In 2018, Hong Kong’s retail food sector sales rose 4.2 percent to $12.8 billion, a positive growth trend forecast to continue. Hong Kong is the fifth-largest export market for U.S. consumer-oriented agricultural products, by value. With a dynamic food culture, sophisticated buyers, and world-class logistical infrastructure, Hong Kong is an attractive market for innovative U.S. food and beverage products as well as a gateway to the region.
Drought concerns have diminished with improved precipitation, and FAS/Ottawa expects wheat production to increase in marketing year 2019/20 with yields returning to historical averages. Total wheat export demand appears strong, and higher shipments to Italy have driven the pace of durum exports. FAS/Ottawa has increased export projections for marketing year 2018/19, on sharply higher shipments to China.
Chicken meat production will increase approximately 14 percent, totaling 15.8 million metric tons (MMT) in 2020. Consumption trends for primarily chicken meat but also other animal proteins, will increase for the remainder of 2019 and carry into 2020 as a result of declines in domestic pork production. This will be most prevalent among Chinese institutional entities (educational and state facilities), hotel and restaurant institutions, and the food processing sector. Both domestic chicken meat production and imports will see increases in 2020 but at a slower rate, attributed to environmental controls and production capacity limitations. For 2020, chicken imports are forecast at 600,000 metric tons (MT)as a result of decreased pork availabil.

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