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Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/21/2020 16:32
Posted To:. Rates are appreciably higher than they were last week or indeed any time in past 4 weeks. That's surprising news to those laboring under misapprehensions created by widespread reports of "all-time low rates" from last week. As we discussed yesterday, those reports were based on weekly survey data from Freddie Mac and the MBA, and there are reasons that they don't accurately reflect the day-to-day rate offerings you're actually likely to encounter from the average mortgage lender. This is infinitely more true for refinances due to the new adverse market fee (which only affects refis). To clear up some confusion that seems rather persistent, the new fee for refis has a deadline that applies to mortgage lenders "delivering" or "secu.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/21/2020 16:25
Bonds Find Footing Early, But Aren't Able to Go Green. It's safe to say the bond market found its footing today, but that is only a reference to TODAY (not necessarily "finding footing" in the bigger picture). In terms of 10yr yields, overnight highs gave way to slightly lower highs in the morning and another small improvement in the afternoon. None of that was enough for bonds to turn positive on the day, but of the potential "bad days" we could have had, this is one of... ...(). Forward this article via email: to someone you know that may want to read it.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/21/2020 11:04
Posted To:. The most recent Fannie Mae's Lender Sentiment Survey focuses on the complexities of lending to the condominium market. The company stresses that this type of housing can play an important role in narrowing the supply gap for affordable housing options as well as providing an attractive alternative for homeowners seeking to downsize. However, since the great recession, there has been a significant shortage of both new and existing units for sale. Condos represent 8 to10 percent of the mortgage market but tend to exist primarily and thus play a larger role in many urban areas. They also present unique risks given the financial responsibility owners share for the operation and maintenance of the common areas and shared amenities. Le.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/21/2020 10:53
Posted To:. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says there was little change in mortgage application activity during the week ended October 16. MBA's Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, dipped 0.6 percent from the prior week on a seasonally adjusted basis and was down 1.0 percent unadjusted. Refinancing was also flat. The Refinance Index increased 0.2 percent from the previous week although activity remained well ahead of a year earlier, up 74 percent. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 66.1 percent of total applications from 65.6 percent the previous week. Applications for home purchasing fell for the fourth straight week , and for the seasonally adjusted index it has consistently bee.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/21/2020 09:40
There have been reasons to fear a momentum shift in bonds for several weeks now. Here's how we discussed it at the beginning of October:. "It's never a bad idea to consider risks on the road ahead--especially when things start deteriorating at the beginning of the month. We often see a shift in momentum with a new month when the previous one was fairly consistent with a certain theme. September's theme was definitely consistent.". We went on to discuss a small scale breakout of a consolidation pattern that occurred well inside the already super narrow .62-.72 range. At the time, we ... ...(). Forward this article via email: to someone you know that may want to read it.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/21/2020 09:13
Want some guidance? “If you get a loan at a bank, you’ll be paying it back for 30 years. If you rob a bank, you’ll be out in 10 years. Follow me for more financial advice!” Plenty of MLOs will need financial advice, given their continued record production months and quarters. Ask anyone who had all their retirement money in the company they worked for, like WAMU, Nat City, Countrywide, or Lehman Brothers, about the benefits of diversification. There continues to be optimism in the residential lending community (not so much in the commercial lending arena as leases expire). The challenge for lenders now, as it appears the typical winter doldrums won’t occur this year given rates, is in staff hiring, training, motivation, and hiring. It is th.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/20/2020 16:41
Posted To:. It began last week. It was subtle--so subtle as to pass largely unnoticed. But the gentle drift toward slightly higher rates has taken bigger steps so far this week. As of this afternoon, the average lender is quoting the highest rates since late September! That's quite a realization when juxtaposed with last week's (misleading) headlines about "all-time lows." If the highest rates in nearly a month sound scary, don't freak out just yet. During that time, rates have held inside one of their narrowest ranges ever. By the time we consider how low rates are in the bigger picture there's actually never been a comparable example of "this low for this long." The lift-off hasn't proven to be too alarming just yet either. Many lenders ar.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/20/2020 16:32
Bearish Bond Trend Continues. Looking back at MBS or Treasuries over the past few weeks reveals a clear termination of a rally trend at the end of September and a similarly well-established bearish trend throughout October. Treasury yields are the highest since early June and MBS aren't too far away from their weakest levels in months. Stimulus prospects continue applying pressure, but we should also consider the same discussion we had at the end of... ...(). Forward this article via email: to someone you know that may want to read it.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/20/2020 11:10
Posted To:. Residential construction resumed its upward trend after a brief pause in August. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that all three measures of construction, permitting, housing starts, and unit completions, increased in September. Permits for privately owned residential construction were issued at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,553,000, up by 5.2 percent from the 1,476,000-unit annual rate (revised from 1,416,000) in August. The increase from the previous September's rate of 1,437,000 units was 8.1 percent. Analysts had expected permits to recover from their slight (0.9 percent) downturn in August but those polled by Econoday had a consensus of only 1,451,000 units. Even the hi.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/20/2020 09:25
It was fun and easy to get caught up in (or spoiled by) the recent ultra-narrow range in the bond market. The boundaries of that range were .62 and .72. It lasted for roughly 2 months with one brief exception for a failed breakout attempt, which is nothing short of impressive for a range that narrow. The broader range remained intact, with the aforementioned breakout attempt stopping at 0.79% in late August. That late August sell-off made 0.79% an important level because it reinforced previous behavior from early April and mid-June. Simply put, there is no... ...(). Forward this article via email: to someone you know that may want to read it.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/20/2020 09:09
For all you Romans out there, happy X/XX/XX. As we sail through October, are these the best quarters to be an originator, or a lender, ever? Yes. If you believe Fannie Mae, annual mortgage originations are likely to top $4.1 trillion for the first time ever, as there will be more refinancings this year ($2.6 trillion plus $1.5 trillion of purchase deals) than total loans produced in 2019 ($2.46 trillion). That would trump 2003’s $3.7 trillion, when some LOs were in 1st grade. Freddie Mac is thinking $3.6 trillion. Yes, we lagged earlier this year, but that’s an average of $300 billion a month, $70 billion a week, $14 billion a day. And this despite the primary/secondary at or near an all-time wide, which means that even if MBS prices are co.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/19/2020 15:43
Posted To:. For some unknown reason, there were additional articles over the weekend touting " all-time low mortgage rates." Underpinning these alleged rates is primary data that was released on Wednesday and Thursday last week. In short, the two weekly survey-based mortgage rate indices agreed that best-case-scenario rates were at all-time lows. To be fair, they're not terribly far off base. "Best-case scenario" rates are indeed pretty close to all time lows. The methodology limitations of the surveys could easily explain how they each missed the actual all-time lows that occurred in early August and are thus seeing slightly lower rates now. But do keep in mind that a refinance transaction can no longer be viewed as a best-case scenario due.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/19/2020 15:42
Bond Market Modestly But Disappointingly Weak Despite Stock Sell-Off. Bonds started out weaker and looked like they might make a recovery in the afternoon thanks to a big stock sell-off. But yields refused to move back below the .76% pivot point. That's not the end of the world, but if bonds were inclined to rally or if they were feeling resilient, that would have been a good excuse to move into positive territory on the day. Failing to do so sends a somewhat ominous... ...(). Forward this article via email: to someone you know that may want to read it.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/19/2020 13:31
Posted To:. While applications for new home purchase mortgages jumped in September, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects only modest changes in the September sales data. MBA's Builder Application Survey (BAS) data shows mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 38.2 percent in September compared to a year earlier but were down 5 percent from August 2020 . The latter change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns. MBA estimates new single-family homes were selling at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 869,000 units in September 2020. This estimate is derived using mortgage application information from the BAS, as well as assumptions regarding market coverage and other factors. The estimate is a d.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/19/2020 11:24
Posted To:. Pressure is mounting for the bond market. After a period of intensely calm, narrow trading throughout September, 10yr yields quickly moved to challenge recent range boundaries heading into October. There are known risks on the horizon, with the presidential election and fiscal stimulus being the two biggest flashpoints. Should we assume additional momentum toward weaker levels is simply waiting for a few of these shoes to drop? That depends. Of the two flashpoints, only stimulus carries an obviously negative connotation for the bond market. There are two reasons for this. On one hand, stimulus hurts bonds to whatever extent it helps the economy (a stronger economy supports higher rates and encourages investments to shift toward r.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/19/2020 10:33
Posted To:. For only the second time in its 35-year history, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) topped 80 this month. The first time was in September. The index, a measure of builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes increased two points to 85, breaking the previous high of 83 set last month. "Traffic remains high and record-low interest rates are keeping demand strong as the concept of 'home' has taken on renewed importance for work, study and other purposes in the Covid era," said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. "However, it is becoming increasingly challenging to build affordable homes as shortages of lots, labor, lumber and other key building materials are lengthe.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/19/2020 10:31
Posted To:. There were approximately 7.5 million second homes in the U.S. in 2018, the most recent year for which data is available. This is 5.5 percent of the nation's total housing stock. Na Zhao, writing in the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB's) Eye on Housing blog, says the largest share of these homes are in Florida with a total of 1.1 million homes, 14.5 percent of the country's total. The fewest homes, only 20,000, were in South Dakota NAHB defines a second home as one that qualify for the home mortgage interest deduction using the Census Bureau's 2018 American Community Survey (ACS). This does not include houses held primarily for investment or business purposes nor does it include homes under construction. Half of the na.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/19/2020 08:45
Fifteen days until the election! How many days would it take you, or the company that employs you, to save up $11 million? In my discussions with CEOs, they are more concerned about how the election may impact the future regulatory environment than interest rates. I mention that because Florida’s Ocwen Financial Corp. (“New Co.” spelled backward, by the way) agreed to provide more than $11 million in cash and services to settle a lawsuit by Florida's attorney general alleging widespread misconduct by its mortgage servicing business. “It follows. that Ocwen routinely abused its mortgage customers with, according to the attorney general's 2017 civil complaint, illegal foreclosures, misapplied mortgage payments, failure to make insurance paymen.
Mortgage News Daily - Blogs 10/16/2020 17:03
Posted To:. Yesterday, we discussed why rates are not actually at all-time lows. But rates are whatever they are. They're relation to previous lows doesn't really matter at the end of the day. Do you benefit from refinancing? Can you afford your new purchase payment? Great! Don't worry if the rate is technically not an all-time low. I'm just on a crusade for journalistic accuracy, shouting at my own little wall over here. More important than the outright level of interest rates is the risk of volatility on the horizon. With everything the economy and financial markets have been through in 2020, the past few months have been surprisingly calm in the bigger picture--especially for the bond market (which has a direct bearing on mortgage rates).

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