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War on the Rocks 10/21/2019 03:50
The best way to ensure a speedy exit from a war is to have never intervened in the first place. The second-best option is to have an exit strategy. If you have decided to roll the dice in the most complex, destructive, and uncertain activity humans can engage in, one would think having a plan […]. .
War on the Rocks 10/18/2019 03:55
Historical analogies are powerful tools. While no analogy is perfect, they can be extremely effective in policy debates, making concepts that are hard to imagine seem real. In discussions about cybersecurity, experts often warn about a “cyber Pearl Harbor.” The analogy has been marshalled to drive funding for programs, personnel, and commands and centers throughout […]. .
War on the Rocks 10/18/2019 03:45
“With today’s technology, land-based [ballistic] missiles are an embarrassment,” the late, great strategist Thomas Schelling wrote in 1987. The weapons, he added, “seem to give the entire deterrent a bad name.” Schelling was right: Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are by far the least valuable leg of the so-called nuclear triad, which also consists of submarine-launched […]. .
War on the Rocks 10/17/2019 03:55
This submission is in response to the search for ideas from the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. It addresses item 3b — the infrastructure needed to sustain leadership in artificial intelligence, and item 3d — how data should be collected, stored, protected, and shared. *** If you are an analyst — it does not […]. .
War on the Rocks 10/17/2019 03:50
On an early fall morning in 2028, a confrontation between Russia and Lithuania escalates. Russian air assault forces land and attack Lithuanian forces at Siauliai Air Base. Meanwhile, Russian Spetsnaz Forces assault the headquarters of the Lithuanian air force and the Airspace Surveillance and Control Command at Kaunas, effectively blinding the country’s air formations and […]. .
War on the Rocks 10/17/2019 03:45
During World War II, Secretary of War Henry Stimson dammed the U.S. Navy’s approach to wartime strategy and famously wondered about "the peculiar psychology of the Navy Department, which frequently seemed to retire from the realm of logic into a dim religious world in which Neptune was god, Mahan his prophet, and the U.S. Navy [...]. .
War on the Rocks 10/15/2019 03:50
Across the Middle East and Europe, millions of uprooted Syrians are making decisions about their future. Unless the international community takes their motives and calculations seriously, ill-conceived humanitarian policies risk exacerbating, rather than preventing, future political instability. Many displaced Syrians experience tremendous suffering and yearn for an end to the conflict; the international community, and […]. .
War on the Rocks 10/15/2019 03:45
In the U.S. nuclear community, you’ll often hear a strangely contradictory statement about nuclear weapons. It goes something like this: “We have nuclear weapons so that nuclear weapons will never be used.” U.S. nuclear deterrence, however, hinges on the assumption that adversaries believe that the United States has a functioning stockpile of nuclear weapons that […]. .
War on the Rocks 10/14/2019 03:50
Ending a military intervention is hard. It’s certainly harder than starting one. Every modern American president has learned this lesson, with President Donald Trump being only the most recent, with his attempted departure from Syria and scrapped exit from Afghanistan. After announcing that he wanted U.S. forces to make way for a Turkish invasion of […]. .
War on the Rocks 10/11/2019 03:50
Russia and the United States have started a game of chicken in the Arctic that could lead to an unnecessary military conflict. The Russians have asserted unilateral control over the Northern Sea Route, an international waterway running along Russia’s northern coast, and are deploying military assets at chokepoints along the route. U.S. officials dispute Russia’s […]. .
War on the Rocks 10/11/2019 03:45
The U.S. Air Force is about to execute a plan that could have irreversible consequences, and time is running out to change course. Before it retires the KC-10 “Extender,” its long-distance, high-capacity aerial refueling plane, the Air Force should reconsider. America’s return to great power conflict requires a force that can reach China and Russia […]. .
War on the Rocks 10/10/2019 03:45
This week, President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Syria-Turkey border region. In so doing Trump rekindled debates about credibility, support for allies, and America’s role in the Middle East. Critics warned that abandoning the Kurds, who served as coalition partners in the fight against the self-proclaimed Islamic State, would undermine […]. .

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